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Wednesday
Nov072012

Six Massively Important Super-Astute Observations on the U.S. Election

1. FREEDOM 55%

One of the biggest winners was liberty itself. Freedom is on the march, my friends, further proving my Third General Theory: humanity is on an ascending line of social, intellectual, political and cultural progress.

For the first time ever, U.S. voters - as opposed to judges or lawmakers - decided that prohibition of recreational pot was a bad idea. Both Colorado and Washington voted to legalize by a clear majority (on a clear question) of 55%.

For the first time ever, U.S. voters - as opposed to judges or lawmakers  - decided that prohibiting gay marriage was a bad idea. Following numerous failures for similar resolutions, it succeeded twice last night, in Maine and Maryland.

That courts and legislatures have led on these issues matters a lot but nothing beats a popular mandate. I’m no fan of mob rule (unless of course the zombies attack), as governments must protect the rights of minorities even when it displeases the majority. But here we have two examples of the majority voting to protect and advance human rights and civil liberties. Go, humans, go!

Finally, both issues are on a one-way street to Reason City and there’s no going back. Last night’s ballot box victories mark a tipping point, and don’t be surprised if pot and gay marriage are legal throughout North America within a decade or two.

2. I'M OK, YOU'RE OK

Another ceiling shattered: not only did Tammy Baldwin did become the first openly gay candidate to ever win a U.S. Senate seat, reports suggest her sexual orientation was a virtual non-issue during the campaign. This is not unrelated to the first point. Onwards and upwards, humanity. 

3. TEA-BAGGED!

Mitt Romney narrowly won independents, while prominent candidates pushed by the Tea Party - some of whom defeated moderate Republicans in primary fights - had a terrible night. Todd Akin and Richard Mourdock were legitimately raped by voters, as per god’s will. Linda McMahon, seen here receiving a Stone Cold Stunner, lost too. Even Queen of the Loons Michele Bachmann just barely hung on to her purportedly safe seat.

There are major ramifications here for the Republican Party should it bother to notice. So-called moderate Republicans are still pretty conservative relative to the electorate as a whole. Meanwhile the Tea Party delusionally believes its ideas are mainstream.

Remember at the last debate when it seemed like an alien had invaded Mitt Romney’s body? You know, the one who championed help for civil society in developing nations, quoted a U.N. study by Arab scholars, and said the word “peace” about 347 times? Or how Romney softened his stance on abortion and healthcare (and everything else) exactly 2.7 seconds after winning the primary?

Indeed.Well it turns out that’s what a Republican should sound like - voters like that. And it turns out they rather dislike lunatic ramblings about Jesus, contraception, Karl Marx and Kenya.

So the party of Abraham Lincoln (!) has a choice: turn the train around and head back to Sanityville or double down on your race to Crazytown. I quite hope they go with option 1, as democracy sort of depends on having at least two viable options.

4. TOSS-UP, SHMOSS-UP

Ask ten mentally challenged chimpanzees to devise a voting system and they’ll likely arrive at something more sensible than the U.S. Electoral College. But it’s the system they’ve got, and what that means is that the national voter intention polls that were so tight until voting day are actually quite worthless. (In fact McCain’s big problem in ‘08 was that his campaign obsessed over national polls, while the Obama's got busy with data, algorithms and state-by-state mathematical scenarios. We know how that turned out.)

Again this time around, if you considered the actual Electoral College math and the various possible scenarios (paths to victory) for each candidate, it was clear to you that this was no toss-up, not even close.

Math can be pretty relentless, and as Nate Silver of NYT’s 538 blog kept pointing out for months, the math was pretty adamant that Obama would win. Silver (who predicted everything with near-perfect accuracy, btw) had the odds of an Obama victory at 90%.

So yeah, this was a toss-up, as long as you’re tossing up a 10-sided die and nine sides say Obama. Maybe one day they’ll change the system. Until then, remember that national polls in the U.S. are about as useful as flip-flops in Iqaluit.

5. SWING-STATE, SHMING-SHMATE

In related news, Obama could have lost Ohio and Florida (and Virginia to boot) and he still would have won. Perhaps something to remember before obsessing for months over a single state and recklessly disrupting the lives of its citizens. All those poor Columbasites afraid to answer their phones, those sad Cincinnatians longing for ads about cereal if only because they don’t attack other cereals, those oppressed Toledois turning off all the lights as campaign workers peer through the blinds. Let us stand with Ohians and say loud and clear: never again.

6. DONALD TRUMP REALLY IS INSANE

In hindsight, all the warning signs were there. Donald Trump, seen here receiving a Stone Cold Stunner, went off the deep end on election night. Make that catapulted off the deep end. Batshit crazy.

 

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